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Egypt plays the “Badme” game

Renaissance DamThe majority of you might not anticipate to envision the tiny town “Badme” that claimed tens of thousand lives during the Ethio Eritrea war and the name Egypt, to appear on the same line. Give me a chance to provide you some insight. In May 1998, disgraceful Eritrea; determined to show its muscle by occupying an Ethiopian town Badme. At the time, Ethiopian government was held in discharging veteran warriors on an inaccurate assumption that the Eritrean case was closed, and there would be no war, anymore. Regrettably that was not the case. Eritrea had a plan, a wicked one. Beginning its “Independence” it has been sending its people to training camps. The moment Eritrea thought it was ready occupied Ethiopia’s piece of land and told us to go to hell.


What was worse, was not Eritrea’s hostility but how can the Ethiopian government miss to uncover that Eritrea has been preparing for war for seven years? If anyone can understand the shabian mindset, it must be EPRDF. They know shabia since its inception. They know shabia was not and can not be a government, yet they miserably failed to predict shabian lawlessness. Following Eritrean aggression, Ethiopia begged Eritrea to withdraw its troops out of Ethiopia’s territory and settle the issue on round table discussion. However, Eritrean president for life, Isaias Afwerki, ignored the call and belittled Ethiopia.

The great war and the unjust verdict

After several meaningless talk between Ethiopia & Eritrea, Ethiopia made a move, and belligerent Eritrea had to abandon Badme and permit UN peacekeepers to reside 25 km deep and 1000 Km long, on Eritrean soil. Soon after Ethiopia crushed Eritrea, oddly enough reason Eritrea managed to drag Ethiopia to the international court.If Eritrea believes in the court of law, then there should not be a war to begin with.Also, Ethiopia after paying the ultimate price should not agree to go court.

Many of the events that happened then did not make sense at all. First Eritrea should not even think to wage war against a nation that is several folds bigger than itself. Second, as the late PM Meles said, it was during this government Eritrea got its independence. If this government were willing to grant  Eritrean “freedom”, a piece of land shouldn’t have caused all out war. Third Ethiopia is the only nation in Africa that kept its independence as far as Ethiopian history stretches back in time.

Fast forward, the west awarded Ethiopian Badme to Eritrea. Many Ethiopians could not believe the West verdict; I, however, was not surprised, in fact, I was kind of expecting it. That’s what the west good at, give you something to fight on, for the rest of your life. And we have been doing it exactly the way the west prescribed for us.

Egypt playing the “Badme” game

Despite Ethiopia was the source and contributes more than 85 % of the Nile water, Egypt has been using our water but never thankful. To the contrary, making threats against Ethiopia. Egyptians were not just talking a talk, they had clear goals, plans and executed them, well. Don’t take my words for that, watch what our late PM Meles said about Egypt’s strategies towards Ethiopia, and later Egyptian live TV broadcast proved it:

Block any finance
Create chaos
Build vast army

PM Meles’s analysis was proved by Egyptian live TV broadcast.

Legitimate concern

Egyptian fear about their water security may be reasonable however their argument won’t help them. They should come up with a better idea.  Egypt depends on the Nile 100% does not mean the Nile belongs to Egypt. Egypt was successful in securing its water needs for centuries is not to say, it will continue indefinitely. If you don’t own it, it is not yours. Egypt can not hold Ethiopia hostage forever. That’s the 21st-century reality Egypt should face.

Contrary to the facts on the ground, Egypt stuck in the past. Despite Ethiopia’s effort to bring it to reality, Egypt has chosen to continue walking on the wrong path. Several talks among Ethiopia, Sudan, and Egypt, have been conducted but proved to be futile. The reason was clear: Egypt never had the intention to negotiate. Egyptian delegates were there just to deliver Egypt’s demand, which is nothing but the same as do not touch the Nile. So what’s the point of all those meetings unless Egypt was ready to negotiate?And that reminds me the Badme case. Eritrea didn’t win the war, but it did in the court. Eritreans know that Badme never been Eritrean. And of course, it will never be. However they have something to hang on, the unjust court’s decision. Egypt is looking for a similar opportunity.

Few years ago, Egyptians were caught by surprise. They could not see what was coming. They thought their unfair old tactics would continue to prevent Ethiopia from using its natural resources. However, Ethiopia’s  leadership outsmarted their Egyptian counterparts and came up with a strategy that will put an end to the Egypt’s old habit: The Ethiopian Grand Renaissance Dam (GERD). Once the GERD gets completed,  Egypt will drop its unfair and old stand and start to learn negotiation 101.

Egyptian delegates were known to leak false information to media, every time they had meetings with their Ethiopian and Sudanese counterparts. However this time, instead of leaking they chose to fabricate. Sameh Shoukry, the Egyptian foreign minister, said, “We are satisfied with the results of this meeting and look forward to achieving a strategic partnership.” And “Ethiopia can’t fill in Renaissance Dam reservoir until studies are finished. “we need a denial statement from the Ethiopian government; otherwise, we have no choice but to take this heartbreaking news as it is.
Until the above news, I had much appreciation to the way Ethiopia was handling the situation. I still do not buy the above claim. However, it would be great for the Ethiopian government to say something about it.

One way the other, Ethiopia should promise nothing! It may be a good idea to let the Egyptians see for themselves the dam is up to standard and won’t cause an appreciable harm. However, Ethiopia should not make the same mistake as it did in the Badme case. I have NO DOUBT what so ever, these two selected firms either will conclude yes, the dam will have an appreciable harm, and that will be the best new year’s gift to Egyptians. Because, they will have a document that Ethiopia signed on or Egypt will reject the result and continue echo their unrealistic demand. All I am trying to say is Ethiopia should not ever promise anything to Egypt::

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