A friend of mine called and said that, he read something on Facebook that two Eritreans found leading the current unrest related to the Addiss Ababa master plan and got arrested. Well we both were skeptical about it. However, we agreed on one thing. And that was shabia wont sleep until Ethiopia is brought to its knee. And this time the odds are in favor of Eritrea. wondered why? keep reading you will get the answer.
The significance of the bloody Ethio Eritrea war
I consider my self as one of those people who strongly condemn war, anywhere, anytime for all reasons. But when it comes the 1998 war between Ethiopia and Eritrea, I wanted it, badly! Well this might make me look like a hypocrite or hate monger. I can explain it. When DERG got defeated, the overwhelming Eritreans began to spread rumors.It did not take them that long to claim they vanquished”Ethiopia”. Yes, they have struggled and paid all sorts of cost including lives, but that shouldn’t grant them to declare “we defeated Ethiopia!” . Eritreans did not fight and defeat Derg alone. I am not going to invest much energy to rundown who contributed and what, to make my point, here. Any Clueless person who dive few inches into Ethio Eritrea history will uncover the facts.
May be, somebody may think whether this was my best reason and attempting frantically to legitimize why I needed the war, so badly. Not really, but it was a piece of it. Had Eritreans just talked, sang or made documentaries how they “did it”, I wouldn’t stress much. But unfortunately, shabian pioneers began to trust their own fabricated propaganda and suddenly occupied Badme, an Ethiopian town. I was furiously angry just like any Ethiopian, however, I was still in favor of peace, until I heared all the puerile, rehashed, and degrading publicity through their media outlets. Then I had no choice but change my position from peace to war, war broke-out and we won!
Prior to the war, Eritrea has enjoyed in a decent relationship with the US and UK. Both these nations clearly took side with Eritrea,amid the war. I even think both the UK & US had known shabia’s horrible mistake, to occupy Badme,though I doubt that Isaias had received their blessing. I remember when these nations tried to tell Ethiopia not to use it’s Air-force. Who will forget the day the US and the UK (UN) placed an arms embargo on Ethiopia. Well politics is dirty, you don’t have a permanent friend nor enemy. You just need to understand the rules and master the game.
Isasias did not just lost Badme after the war, but also he did the US & UK companionship. Eritrea turned out to be progressively isolated an forlorn. Truth to be told the main few allies Eritrea may rely on were Libya (now No more), Qatar, may be Egypt and Saudi.
It has been about 25 years since Eritrea chose to go its own way. Contrary to what you expect from a brand new nation, Eritrea has been ruled without constitution for the last two decades and still nothing practical but promises. Paradoxically the constitution-less Eritrea has had policies and spending plans to destabilize Ethiopia.To me everything about Eritrea was placed on hold until Isaias sees dismantled Ethiopia along ethnic and religion lines. To achieve his fantasy, Isaias has been creating and providing shelter for all anti Ethiopia elements. That’s not all, the UN has placed sanction on Eritrea for aiding the terrorist group Al shabab, in Somalia. Ethiopia successfully played a role in the exposing Eritrea’s dirty work to the world that led to Eritrea’s isolation.In the 21st century, isolation has more consequences than mere loneliness. Years of isolation led Eritreans to mass migration and near collapse. Be as that as it may, the present state of Eritrea wont proceed the way it is today. The arrival of UAE and Qatar, the US ambassador recent visit to the Eritrean cash cow Bisha mining and the Mr.Herman Cohen consistent cry should not be disregarded.
The case of access to the sea (Assab) paranoia
Unfortunately once Eritrea was gone, so does the access to the sea. Btw I am not here to persuade anyone that we needn’t Assab, nor to address how to get it back. The point I would like to make here is, straightforward and related to the economic feasibility and political advantage as long as shabian philosophy exist in Asmara. Eritrean ports have been out of service since the last time we utilized them. Certainly when the time comes for Ethiopia to use them, they will require some tune ups. At the moment, new roads and railroads that has been building for the past several years with our neighbors especially Djibouti will make Eritrean ports insignificant if not irrelevant.
However, in the past few weeks , some media reported the presence of UAE & Saudi naval around Eritrean port of Assab. later another rumor came out that UAE leased Assab for 30 years. In the event that this thing has some truth in it, it will the second grave mistake Isaias to commit, the first being invading Badme! Saudi Arabia has been accused of financing terrorism, since those days when nations struggled to define the word “terrorism” till the last week shooting in California. Permiting Saudi to operate in the vicinity of Assab will create a hot bed for terrorist, to the already challenging east African region.
No war no peace
Regardless of all the regular earnest tries what shabian infantrymen endeavor to tell us; without an ounce of doubt, Ethiopia has profited from the no war no peace circumstances so far. However not without an expense. Eritrea has been harboring, arming and sending terrorists. Many times our people and security forces managed to prevent before threats became reality.However there were times when innocent lives lost due to explosion in buses or people kidnapped and taken to Eritrea from the border areas. That’s not it. Shabia has been very successful in recruiting, organizing and manipulating previous regimes leftovers under the name of “opposition” to spit venom on our innocent society.
Over all Eritrea has hit all time low in all viewpoints. The tiny economy gone from bad to worse and now to non existent.Eritrea has become one of the top five refugee producing nations in the entire world although, Eritrean diplomats and their media made worthless endeavor to label the genuine Eritrean refugee as “Africans” pretending Eritrean. As a result everyone seems waiting eagerly to see what is next. I was in the same boat until the UAE and Saudi arrive to the rescue on the disguise of Yemen. And now Egypt appear to attempting to join the rescue for the obvious reason. If there is anyone who gets benefit from the no war no peace anymore, for the future its going to be solely Eritrea. Eritrea has nothing to lose from now on: because it already did. At this time doing nothing and waiting the unconscious Isaias to be resuscitated by these historically unfriendly nations will be a mistake that we can not afford.
Shabia has to go. Isaias has to go, now! of course we have millions in need of food aid, but the fact of the matter is, Eritrea and the newly arrived allies wont hold up till we are able to feed our people.In any case , recall the benefit of “No war No peace” has just expired.